Pretrend Protocol
Continuous trend resolution for prediction markets. Users predict the magnitude and direction of change — not just whether an event occurs.
Version 4.0
What it does
A Pretrend market asks how much something will move, not whether it will. A live feed is recorded over a fixed window, a trend line is fit across the whole window, and the fitted change lands in one of five graded outcome buckets. Participants buy units in VUSD; winners get their stake back plus a share of the losing buckets. The same computation runs natively on Vitruveo through the Trend precompile, so every result is deterministic and verifiable by anyone.
Who builds it
Pretrend is developed by Vertical Foundation as part of the Vitruveo ecosystem. The statistical engine ships inside the Vitruveo protocol itself; TrendPulse, the oracle, records the feeds; and Pretrend runs the marketplace on top of them, from data to payout.
Vision
The flagship application of the Vitruveo ecosystem — backed all the way by Vertical Foundation
Pretrend's statistical engine ships inside the Vitruveo protocol itself — compiled Go running at the client layer, not contract bytecode. That depth of integration is deliberate: Vertical Foundation is all-in on making Pretrend the defining application of the ecosystem.
Polymarket proved the appetite for prediction markets. Pretrend brings a new kind of market to it, and runs that market itself: one operator and one set of rules from the oracle that records the data to the contract that pays the winners, settled in VUSD, the market currency. The marketplace is not offered where prediction markets are prohibited by regulation.
Feel the Trend — Play AIWars Trends
AIWars Trends turns Pretrend's resolution engine into a live 5-minute game on AI Wars Battle Momentum: aim your line at Crash through Moon as the telemetry streams in — the earlier you call it, the more points a win pays.
AIWars TrendsThree Worlds, One Point
Pretrend sits at the intersection of blockchain, artificial intelligence, and the humanities.
Blockchain is the truth axis. Vitruveo computes every trend natively and settles every market on-chain, so no participant has to take anyone's word for an outcome — they can verify it.
Artificial intelligence is the scale axis. AI market insights watch every feed around the clock and explain, in plain language, why a trend is moving and where buys are flowing — work that once took a trading desk.
The humanities are the meaning axis. Markets are only interesting when they're about what people care about — markets, music, movies, culture, attention. Pretrend turns collective human judgment about those things into a measurable, tradable signal.
Vitruveo takes its name from Vitruvius, whose ideas Leonardo drew as a human figure inscribed in a circle — humanity at the center of geometry. Pretrend keeps that arrangement: the person stays in the middle; the mathematics surrounds them.
2026 Roadmap
The path to live Pretrend markets — quarter by quarter through 2026.
Shanghai Upgrade & Protocol Contracts
Upgrade protocol to Shanghai, remove legacy features and revise tokenomics.
View Explorer →On-Chain Trend Algorithm
Implement algorithms needed for Pretrend into the protocol as built-in smart contracts and deploy.
Try it out →Smart Contracts
Develop and deploy the smart contracts that implement the Pretrend protocol.
Oracle & Marketplace
Launch the TrendPulse oracle and the Pretrend marketplace, with VUSD as the market currency.
The Problem with Binary Markets
Current prediction markets force complex, continuous phenomena into binary outcomes. A market asking whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by a certain date loses all nuance about price movement.
If Bitcoin rises from $60,000 to $99,000, participants who bet on growth receive nothing — despite being directionally correct. Markets can't capture the magnitude of movement, only whether a threshold was crossed.
Setting thresholds is arbitrary and can make markets unbalanced from inception. Near-miss outcomes feel punitive to participants who correctly predicted direction but not exact magnitude.
The Trend Alternative
Real-world data moves continuously. Prices drift, metrics fluctuate, engagement rises and falls. A prediction system that captures directional movement and magnitude provides richer market dynamics and fairer outcomes.
Pretrend fits a linear regression trend over every point in a market's window. The fitted change maps to one of five outcome buckets, each covering a range of movement calibrated to the specific data source.
Participants buy units in one of five buckets — from significant decline to significant growth. Every bucket's price climbs from a dime at open to a dollar at the close, so earlier buyers receive more units per dollar. Winners get their stake back plus a share of the losing buckets in proportion to their units.
Compare & Contrast
How Pretrend's trend-based model stacks up against the leading prediction markets.
| Capability | Pretrend | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Captures magnitude and direction, not just yes/no | — | — | |
| Five graded outcome buckets | — | — | |
| Native on-chain statistical computation | — | — | |
| Timeslope pricing rewards early conviction | — | — | |
| Any time-series data source | — | — | |
| Live trend you can watch as the market runs | — | — | |
| On-chain settlement | — |
Why Now
Prediction markets have broken into the mainstream — billions in volume, millions of participants, headlines worldwide. The appetite is proven, and the category is still early.
Yet every one of those markets still asks a single yes-or-no question. Pretrend opens the same momentum to a richer kind of market — one that captures how far and which way, not just whether.
Polymarket and Kalshi figures are approximate, reported trading volumes.
Five Outcome Buckets
Every market has exactly five buckets representing ranges of trend movement, calibrated to each data source's historical volatility.
What You Can Predict
If it moves over time, it can become a market. A glimpse of what Pretrend makes possible:
Is memecoin demand on pump.fun rising over the next five minutes?
How strong is NVIDIA's momentum this quarter?
Is demand for AI compute still accelerating?
A creator's follower growth over 90 days
Which way is inflation trending?
A film's opening-month box-office momentum
Five graded outcomes — Crash, Bear, Flat, Bull, Moon — for any time-series the world produces.
System Architecture
Six components, all operated by Pretrend: from the feed that records the data to the contract that pays the winners.
TrendPulse Oracle
Off-chain (Pretrend operated)
Records every feed at its native cadence, down to every two seconds, and serves the series and live trend statistics through a public API.
Trend Precompile
Vitruveo Blockchain (native)
Computes OLS regression, R-squared, volatility, and bucket quintiles at compiled machine-code speed, so anyone can recompute a published result.
Notary Service
Off-chain (Pretrend operated)
Freezes each market’s bucket edges at the open, fits the final trend at the close, and signs and records the result. Also signs USDT bridge receipts.
Market Contracts
Vitruveo Blockchain
Handle unit purchases in VUSD, bucket state, fees, and winner payouts. Settlement happens on Vitruveo, with no cross-chain step.
VUSD & Bridge
Vitruveo and BNB Chain
VUSD, the market currency, is backed 1:1 by USDT.b. USDT moves between BNB Chain and Vitruveo through the notarized bridge, in-page on the swap page.
Provider Modules
Off-chain
Per-source adapters that read an external source and normalize it into timestamped points for the oracle.
Trend Precompile
A native precompiled contract on the Vitruveo blockchain that performs statistical computation at the Geth client layer — compiled Go code, not interpreted EVM bytecode.
Mode 1: Full Analysis
Given a series of timestamp-value pairs, the precompile computes three values:
- Slope percentage — the fitted trend change from start to end of the series
- R-squared — confidence in the linear fit
- Volatility — sample standard deviation
Output: 96 bytes (3 × 32-byte signed integers, scaled by 1018)
Mode 2: Volatility Buckets
Given historical data and a window size, the precompile computes quintile thresholds for bucket boundaries:
- Calculates absolute percentage change for every rolling window
- Sorts deltas and returns 20th, 40th, 60th, and 80th percentile values
- These four thresholds define the five outcome buckets
Output: 128 bytes (4 × 32-byte unsigned integers representing quintile thresholds)
Timeslope Pricing
A dime at the open, a dollar at the close. Every bucket's price climbs with the clock and accelerates with demand — rewarding early conviction with better returns.
The Formula
timeDrift: steady climb to $1.00 at the 80% close · demandSlippage: every purchase pushes its bucket further ahead
Early Bird Advantage
| Buyer | Price | Units | Share | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alice (early) | $0.21 | 466 | 53.1% | 3.85x |
| Carol (mid) | $0.44 | 226 | 25.8% | 2.37x |
| Frank (late) | $0.91 | 110 | 12.6% | 1.66x |
Same $100 stake plus the $2 fee, different timing. Winners get their stake back plus their unit share of the losing buckets. Buying closes at 80% of the market, when every bucket reaches $1.00.
Market Lifecycle
From open to payout, back to back — a new market every few minutes.
Open
A new market opens on every multiple of its window, such as every five minutes for pump.fun. The Notary freezes the bucket edges from the feed’s recent history.
Buy
Participants buy units in VUSD while watching the feed and its live trend. Timeslope pricing climbs with time and demand until buying closes at 80% of the market.
Resolve
At the close, the Notary fits the final trend over every recorded point and records the winning bucket on Vitruveo. Winners get their stake back plus their share of the losing buckets.
Data Sources
Each market resolves on a single canonical feed recorded by TrendPulse. Launch markets are listed first; more feeds are added over time.
pump.fun Buy Volume
SOL spent buying pump.fun coins on their bonding curve
Bitcoin
BTC against USDT, from a continuous exchange stream
Ethereum
ETH against USDT, from a continuous exchange stream
Equities
Stock prices, indices, forex rates
Commodities
Oil, gold, natural gas, agricultural futures
Social Metrics
Follower counts, view counts, engagement rates
The Marketplace
Pretrend operates the marketplace itself: one set of rules from the data to the payout.
VUSD
The market currency on Pretrend, backed 1:1 by USDT.b on Vitruveo. Swap it 1:1 with USDT on BNB Chain or USDT.b on Vitruveo, in-page on the swap page.
Fees
Each buy carries a fee of 0.90 VUSD or 2%, whichever is higher. There is no fee at resolution and no fee on payouts.
Payouts
Winners get their buy amount back plus a share of the losing buckets in proportion to their units, sent to their wallets automatically as soon as the market resolves.
Availability
The marketplace is not offered where prediction markets are prohibited by regulation. Market participation is switched off there; market data and results stay public everywhere.
Security
Trust-minimized by design — every result is signed, on-chain, and independently verifiable.
Oracle Trust Model
TrendPulse and the Notary are operated by Pretrend. Bucket edges are frozen before each market opens, every result is signed and recorded, and the trend computation is deterministic — anyone can rerun it from the public series.
Data Integrity
OLS regression dampens single spikes, and every point in the window counts. Moving a trend means moving the underlying market across the whole window.
Void Protection
A market is voided if the oracle records fewer than a quarter of the expected points, the feed fails, or no result is recorded within 24 hours. Every buy amount is refunded in full.
Bridge Safety
USDT sent to the bridge sits in an escrow you can refund until the Notary signs its receipt. An interrupted transfer resumes from the swap page.
The world runs on trends.Pretrend makes them tradable.
Five buckets, one trend. Make your call early.